A stress result answers a conditional question about a defined set of inputs. Its usefulness depends on the scenario, position mapping, valuation method and the risks left outside the calculation.
Is this calculator free?
Yes. The workbench, reverse-stress calculation, guides and reference downloads can be used without registration or payment. There is no paid feature gate in this release. That statement describes this publication, not the pricing of any external research provider linked from it.
Are the scenarios actual historical events?
No. The seven presets are hypothetical assumption sets chosen to illustrate different mechanisms. They are not labelled as a replay of 2008, 2020 or any other dated episode. A historical replay would need a defined observation window, original market data, matching conventions and a documented treatment of missing exposures.
Does a loss number have a probability?
Not here. The engine has no fitted return distribution, scenario frequency or calibrated forecasting model. A minus-30% equity assumption can be useful for examining exposure without asserting how likely it is. Severity and plausibility need their own reasoning; selecting a preset does not supply that evidence.
Why is my full ending value not estimated?
A positive-value unmodeled holding makes the complete ending value unknown. The workbench still reports the calculated contribution from covered positions and their share of starting value. Carrying the missing holding forward unchanged would silently assign it a zero return, so the tool does not do that.
Can I enter options, short positions or a currency hedge?
Those exposures are outside the supported valuation methods. An option can change sensitivity as price, volatility and time move; a short or financed position can involve different cash-flow and collateral behavior. A currency hedge requires its own instrument and cash-flow treatment. Record the value as unmodeled where appropriate and analyze the exposure with a suitable separate method.
Does 100% coverage mean every risk is captured?
No. It means all positive starting value is assigned to a supported calculation type. It says nothing about whether omitted factors, nonlinear behavior, liquidity constraints, defaults or financing effects are immaterial. Position coverage and risk-factor adequacy are different review questions.
Why can a bond gain in one adverse scenario?
An adverse narrative can include falling government yields and widening credit spreads. The rate-duration term may produce a gain while the spread-duration term produces a loss. Their net depends on the supplied sensitivities and shocks. That offset is an assumption-dependent calculation, not a general promise that bonds protect a portfolio.
Can I use the result as a regulatory stress report?
This publication does not claim regulatory approval or compliance. Its small sensitivity engine lacks many features needed for instrument-specific valuation, governance, capital assessment and supervisory submissions. Use the methodology to understand the boundary of the example and obtain qualified advice for the actual reporting obligation.
Review checkpoints
- Hypothetical is not historical or probabilistic.
- Unknown exposures remain unknown.
- A complete risk process extends beyond a small sensitivity tool.
Source notes
Continue the analysis
Historical Versus Hypothetical Stress Scenarios
Choose between historical factor replays, constructed scenarios, and transparent hybrids without confusing them with portfolio backtests.
A market loss is not the same as a cash shortfall
Read valuation and cash-flow stress together without double counting losses, sale proceeds, delayed receipts, or financing capacity.
Reading exposures that change as markets move
Recognize where delta-based estimates fail, distinguish payoff diagrams from valuation, and review nonlinear positions under joint shocks.
First edition, 16 October 2026. Hypothetical values are teaching inputs, not observed portfolio or provider results.